Burden from US tariff policy makes GDP decline likely in Austria in 2025
“The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell to minus 2.3 points at the end of the first quarter. However, the decline was minimal at just one tenth of a percentage point”, says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: “In the first quarter of 2025, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator rose to an average of minus 2.4 points, the best value in four quarters. In combination with the improved real economic data from industry and construction as well as the slight growth in retail and the automotive trade, the indicator suggests that the Austrian economy has left the recession behind. For the first time after eight negative quarters, economic output in Austria should have risen slightly again at the start of 2025.”
- UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell by 0.1 points to minus 2.3 points in March
- The decline in sentiment in all economic sectors could not be offset by higher consumer confidence
- Losses of 0.25 percentage points due to US tariff policy: GDP forecast from +0.1 to -0.2 percent
- Noticeable economic growth of 1.1 percent is not expected until 2026
- The problems on the labor market are increasing: Unemployment rate expected to rise to 7.5 percent in 2025, with no improvement in sight for 2026
- Inflation expectations unchanged: Decline in inflation to an average of 2.5 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026
- The burdens of US tariff policy are likely to prompt the ECB to lower the deposit rate below the neutral level to 1.75 percent by the end of 2025
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)
as of April, 2025
About UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator
The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator provides an overview of the current economic situation in Austria.
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