Prospect of economic recovery in the course of 2025, but risks have increased
“Following the slight improvement in the two previous months, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell again slightly to minus 2.5 points in October. With the decline to the weakest value since July, the indicator continues to signal a continuation of the sluggish economy in Austria”, says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: “The Austrian economy is still not getting off the ground. Despite a slight improvement in sentiment in construction and industry, these sectors remain in recession. Although the service sector is stabilising the economy, it is hardly able to provide any impetus to rev up the economic engine due to the ongoing consumer restraint. We therefore expect the economy to remain weak at least until the end of the year and GDP to fall by 0.5 per cent in 2024 as a whole.”
- The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator deteriorated slightly to minus 2.5 points in October
- Sentiment in the services sector deteriorated again, but pessimism in industry and construction declined somewhat
- No end in sight to the economic downturn for the time being: GDP still expected to fall by 0.5 per cent in 2024
- Continued monetary easing and the unwinding of the consumer backlog following sustained gains in purchasing power should enable moderate economic growth of around 1 per cent in 2025
- Forecast risk predominantly on the downside, as increased protectionism in foreign trade could limit global support for the recovery of the domestic economy
- Unemployment rate expected to rise to 7.2 per cent in 2025, after 7.0 per cent in 2024
- Weak economy dampens inflation to an average of 2.9 per cent in 2024, inflation expectation of 2.2 per cent in 2025, despite slight upward pressure at the start of the year
- Next ECB interest rate cut expected in December
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)
as of November, 2024
About UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator
The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator provides an overview of the current economic situation in Austria.
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